UkraineWorld asked Dariia Mykhailyshyna, a Senior Economist at the Centre for Economic Strategy.
According to the Centre for Economic Strategy, around 4.3-5.4 mln Ukrainians have immigrated to European countries. Exact figures are hard to come by, as a number of Ukrainians have returned to Ukraine but haven't yet cancelled their temporary residence status. As a result, they are still, technically, considered as EU residents.
Poland was the most popular destination for Ukrainians in Europe at the onset of the full-scale invasion. However, the situation has changed, with Germany taking the top spot, housing 1.1 mln Ukrainians. Poland ranks second with 990,000 Ukrainians, followed by the Czech Republic, Spain, Italy, and Bulgaria.
Ukrainians are a great asset to Europe's economies. Many of them have degrees and speak foreign languages. Thus, they are better able to fill the gaps in labour markets than other nationalities.
According to our poll conducted among Ukrainian refugees in May 2023, 25% of them are in employment, working full-time, whereas another 8% have part-time work.
It is important to note that some countries, such as Germany, delay the point at which Ukrainians can enter the labour market, incentivizing them to take language/professional courses. So, there is the expectation that they will find employment at a later date.
Several forecasts have been made based on research about how the integration of Ukrainians into the European labour market will affect European economies. E.g., the National Bank of Ukraine forecasts around 2% GDP growth in the Czech Republic and Poland by 2026 solely due to working Ukrainian refugees.
According to Oxford Economics, even if only 650,000 Ukrainian refugees remain in Poland and work, the country's economy will grow by 1.2% by 2030. And if one million Ukrainians work there, the economy can grow by 2%.
Ukraine had demographic issues long before the full-scale invasion. The birth rate in Ukraine had been at record lows, and after the full-scale invasion began, the majority of those who left Ukraine were women of childbearing age. In addition, many children fled Ukraine with their mothers.
According to our estimates, roughly half of the Ukrainian children aged 0 to 9 have left the country.
If these families and, as a result, a large number of children choose to remain abroad, the Ukrainian economy will suffer greatly. The economy will potentially lose a significant portion of its workforce. There also will be a much greater burden on the pension system.
If Ukrainian refugees do not return home, the Ukrainian GDP could suffer losses ranging from 2.7% to 7% due to decreased consumption and labour force loss.
The Center for Economic Strategy conducted a survey to determine the incentives for Ukrainians to return. The most important consideration was security, thus meaning many people would return to Ukraine once the war is over.
However, many Ukrainians have nowhere to return to because their homes have either been occupied or are destroyed. That's why reconstruction is another important factor for people.
The economy is another decisive aspect. Those surveyed stressed the importance of being able to find a high-paying job as a prerequisite for returning to Ukraine.
Lastly, investments from the EU into economic recovery and reconstruction are a crucial factor in relocating the Ukrainian people back to Ukraine.
